Wish they were here

"Someone told me it was a good place to apply for asylum. I didn't know very much about the city, but a friend told me you could get help there," says Ruragaragaza, who fled Burundi after a series of attacks against himself and his family.

Unable to work since he arrived in the UK last August, Ruragaragaza has yet to find out whether he has been granted asylum. It could be months before he gets a decision; the process is slow and Ruragaragaza says he feels frustrated at being unable to plan for the future. However, although he may not know it, Scotland needs Ruragaragaza – and thousands more people like him.

The country faces a demographic crisis. Its population is declining at a faster rate than anywhere else in Europe and the proportion of elderly people is rising. By 2009 Scotland's population is expected to fall below the symbolic 5 million mark – a figure first reached in the 1940s. By 2029, Scotland will have effectively lost 25% of its workforce.

Scotland's politicians have decided to act. Jack McConnell, Scotland's first minister, has said he aims to retain more of the country's students after they graduate. In addition, he hopes to encourage two specific groups of people to live in Scotland: native Scots who have left to work abroad or in England and skilled foreign workers.

McConnell's sales pitch is being repeated more and more often. However, the question is: can his well-intentioned rhetoric, even if backed by some progressive initiatives, convince people to settle in Scotland?

On Wednesday last week, McConnell presented a detailed four-point plan aimed at stemming the population outflow to the Scottish parliament . The plan included:

• a relocation advisory service, which will open by October, to help people who want to work and live in Scotland
  
• an agreement with the UK government, which has ultimate control over immigration policy, to encourage people seeking British work visas to settle in Scotland
  
• a two-year extension to student visas for foreign students willing to stay and search for work after graduation.
  
• a drive to improve Scotland's image, including efforts to promote Scotland to companies abroad. This is intended to tie in with already well-advanced moves to tackle antisocial behaviour.

"Population decline is the greatest threat to Scotland's future prosperity," said McConnell in his address to parliament.

"Tax revenues will fall. Falling school rolls mean local schools will close and local services will become less sustainable, communities will become weaker. The labour market will contract, and there will be fewer consumers to underpin a domestic market. Our economy will be less dynamic and likely to contract."

The initial – and decidedly modest – target is to attract an additional 8000 people every year between now and 2009. "We can do something about this, and we must," said McConnell. "Taken step by step, the challenge looks easier to deal with."

Desiré Ruragaragaza, still awaiting the outcome of his asylum appeal, might wonder where he fits in with McConnell's plans. He recognises that in many ways he made a difficult choice in coming to Scotland, rather that allowing himself to be absorbed into London's African diaspora. Although it is not a significant factor for him, Ruragaragaza says he understands why many people in his position prefer London's multiculturalism to Scotland's homogeneity. "If it had been important for me to be around other Africans, I would not have left London," he says.

Now living in a hotel in the centre of Glasgow, Ruragaragaza says he would be perfectly happy to stay if he was given a chance to work. Moreover, being a solicitor, he meets McConnell's preference that immigrants to Scotland be educated.

But are there jobs for professionals like him? The indicators are not promising.

Long-term economic growth over the past 20 years averages out at about 1.6%, below that of western European countries of comparative size and, crucially, almost a quarter less than that of England. Scotland's unemployment rate for the last quarter of 2003 was 5.8%, a higher figure than most of the UK's 12 regions.

"If there are opportunities here, I will probably stay – l like Glasgow. But if not, I would definitely consider moving to England," says Ruragaragaza.

Native Scots fly the nest
The Scottish job market also seems to be a major obstacle to McConnell's plans to entice professional Scots back to their country of birth. Anna Scott, a 27-year old civil servant, has lived in London since 2001 and says she would not expect to have as many career choices available to her in Scotland. "It's a small country and ultimately there is a limit to the number of good jobs around," she says. "London is still the place to go to prove yourself, to do something exciting."

If there are opportunities here then I will probably stay – but if not, I would consider moving to England 

Desiré Ruragaragaza

Scott also prefers the London lifestyle: "You're just closer to the centre of things. You've got the best theatre and cinema – and a lot of my friends from Scotland now live here, anyway." She might move back to Scotland if she has children, she says, but does not think it likely.

The unfortunate truth is that Scotland has something of an image problem. Popular perceptions of the country swing between two polar opposites: on the one hand, a place of crushing deprivation and social problems; on the other, somewhere quaintly historic. Stories of Scottish hospitality are juxtaposed with anecdotes of people being victimised for having English accents.

So it's hardly surprising that many people don't take the idea of moving seriously. But others are prepared to be upbeat about Scotland's chances of reversing population decline. Paul McDevitt, managing director of Glasgow-based marketing firm Business Fix, claims to see plenty of potential for growth in Scotland. Despite the prevailing lack of confidence in the economy, McDevitt says opportunities in some fields are increasing and not enough is being done to market them. "The construction industry is booming and there is a real shortage of skilled workers," he says. "Stock transfer in Glasgow, the Scottish parliament building in Edinburgh – there is a huge amount of work being done. If people have the right kind of skills they will find jobs."

Scottish Executive statistics bear McDevitt out: despite its unemployment figures, Scotland is still reckoned to have about 12,000 jobs that are currently hard to fill.

Sophie Conway, 24, a trainee solicitor who lives in Edinburgh, says she would be unable to afford her large flat if she worked in south-east England. "Although there has been a property boom over the last few years in Edinburgh, you get much more for your money in Scotland," she says. "Glasgow is even better. Victorian flats with high ceilings are relatively cheap."

McConnell has latched onto the idea that Scotland can be presented as an easier place to live than the high-cost, overcrowded South-east of England. "We have a vibrant culture, stunning countryside, excellent schools, decent transport links and public services. It is good to live in Scotland," he said in his address to the Scottish parliament.

A corollary to McConnell's campaign has been the Scottish Executive's campaign against antisocial behaviour. McConnell believes incidents of "sectarianism and drunken violence" have negatively affected the country's image and, following Westminster's lead, he has introduced legislation to clamp down on low-level crime.

Since last September the executive has allocated roughly £100m to combat antisocial behaviour, some of which will be spent employing 400 community wardens.

What the academics say
While the Scottish media and public is still debating how many immigrants or returnees the country needs and whether McConnell's plan will work, academics have got on with making cataclysmic predictions.

Robert Wright, professor of economics at Stirling University, describes McConnell's plans as "small fry". He estimates that Scotland will need at least 50,000 incomers a year – 40,000 more than proposed by McConnell – to prevent the country's age profile from becoming skewed by the number of pensioners. Moreover, Scotland will find it hard competing with countries such as the USA and Canada, which have stronger economies and a history of integrating large numbers of immigrants.

"These issues have been discussed for decades in other countries," Wright says. "Scotland is only now coming to terms with the problem, but the politicians have no idea of the scale involved. In the light of falling population, advocating policies like free healthcare for the elderly is madness."

Wright sees an inherent flaw in the attempts to attract foreign workers: once they are given work visas, how do you ensure they remain where they are wanted? "There is nothing to prevent foreign workers from picking up their work visa in Scotland and leaving the next day for England," he says.

Much of the blame for Scotland's shortage of skilled workers, says Wright, lies with education policies that encourage half the population to go to university, but virtually ignore the vocational training needs of trades such as plumbing and joinery.

He says: "The Scottish economy needs certain kinds of skilled worker; the difficult thing will be getting a balance between the opportunities available and the immigrants invited to settle here."