Tougher times mean the government should ease

First of all the government was going to allow Manchester to develop a supercasino, but the new prime minister decided it wouldn’t, probably. Then the government was set to introduce road pricing, but the latest news is that it won’t, probably. So what are the prospects for the government’s pledge to deliver 3 million homes by 2020?

Since becoming prime minister, Gordon Brown has consistently expressed his commitment to “putting affordable housing within the reach not just of the few but the many”. Those involved in housing have warmly welcomed that commitment, coming from a political system where health, education and bobbies on the street are bigger vote winners than homes.

Of course, it has been no surprise to see the former chancellor make changes to the policies of his predecessor – no new leader wants to stand accused of paucity of original thinking. Changes of mind, policy and governments are inevitable within the extremely long timescales of regeneration and large-scale housing projects in the UK.

But so too are changes in market conditions and economies. It is one thing to be delivering homes in a period of rising prices; quite another to be building and selling at a time when valuations are being cut, mortgages are harder to come by and you are sitting on a complex multi-phase urban site.

The truth is that delivery of any number of homes depends on a heady cocktail of local, regional, national and global factors, as our features on pages 14 and 16 and the supplement with this issue demonstrate. Planning has made delivery increasingly difficult – consultants say that for all the “improvements”, the system is now worse than it has ever been. At the same time market pundits are predicting prices and housebuilding numbers could fall.

In ditching the planning gain supplement Labour has recognised that now would be a bad time to brandish a big stick at industry. But it may have to provide more carrots: help unlock those sites blocked by government’s own agencies, recognise the planning system’s failings, and ensure the proposed standard planning charge is workable, at the very least. Or else 3 million won’t be delivered, certainly.