Tender prices to rocket by 2020

Tender prices will rocket a third higher than their pre-recession peak by 2020, according to the latest RICS BCIS survey.

The latest survey found tender prices again rose in the first quarter of 2015, up 0.8% on the previous quarter, and by 4.5% year-on-year.

Peter Rumble, head of forecasting, BCIS, said: “The UK construction industry is showing strong signs of growth, this reflected in the BCIS forecast which shows strong increases in new work output. As a result, over the first year of the forecast period, tender prices are expected to rise by 4%, with relatively moderate increases in input costs.

“Moving forward, with workloads continuing to grow, and with rising pressure from input cost increases, tender prices are expected to rise between an annual 4.5% and 6% over the remainder of the forecast period.”

The main drivers behind inflation are wage costs, forecast to increase up to 4% over the next five years, and the expected rise in material costs from 2016 as construction and the wider economy improve, creating upward pressure.

Growth in new work output is anticipated to continue in 2015 and 2016 with increases of 5% in both years and total new work is expected to surpass the pre-recession peak of 2007 during 2016.

BCIS estimates that over the five year forecast period new work output will have grown by around 20% since 2014 driven by continued demand in the private housing, industrial and commercial sectors. However, growth is expected to moderate in 2017, to 3%, rising faster at a rate of 4% in 2018 and 2019.