ODPM set to rethink housing targets in the South-east

The government may be forced to scale back its housebuilding plans in the South-east after householders voted against an increase in housing output in an opinion poll.

The South East of England Regional Assembly is understood to be drawing up a plan that would result in 142,000 fewer homes being built in the next 20 years than the government had originally wanted after the results of the MORI poll were announced. Householders were asked whether they wanted levels of housebuilding to stay as they were or to be increased. A majority rejected any increase.

Observers believe the government will now have to agree a compromise with SEERA, which commissioned the poll, and the East of England Regional Assembly. This could involve agreeing a cut in the number of homes required in John Prescott’s communities plan in return for getting this revised number through planning.

EERA meets next month and insiders are already suggesting that moderate Tories on the assembly will be forced out in favour of hardliners who intend to block the ODPM’s plans. The Conservatives made significant gains in the growth areas in last month’s election, often by opposing the communities plan.

David Miliband, minister for sustainable communities, has already begun a charm offensive by meeting Sir Sandy Bruce-Lockhart, Tory leader of the Local Government Association.

One EERA insider said: “The big question is what the ODPM is going to do now Labour has lost all those seats. There is a much higher chance that Miliband will be looking at ways to get the government off the hook on its housebuilding pledges.

“The government will be looking at what they get from the Tories, but if they think they can get any significant increases in building targets then they’re barking.”

The move comes after SEERA organised a survey of 3 million householders asking them to vote for one of three housebuilding targets:

• 25,500 houses a year, or 510,000 over 20 years
• 28,000 houses a year, or 560,000 over 20 years
• 32,000 houses a year, or 640,000 over 20 years

Out of 60,000 respondents, 68% voted for the lowest levels of housebuilding, 20% for 28,000 – the current level of building, while 9% favoured the top level.

After complaints from the government that the survey was not representative, MORI carried out a survey of 2000 people. In this poll 38% favoured the lowest option, 35% backed the status quo and 22% supported 32,000 homes a year.

SEERA is now planning a new level of 28,900 homes a year, or 578,000 over 20 years. This is 142,000 fewer homes a year than the government’s favoured annual target of 36,000 homes, or 720,000 homes in total – which SEERA did not consult on.

• There is an £8bn funding gap for infrastructure in the South-east growth areas. A report, carried out by planning economist Roger Tym and Partners found that the cost of infrastructure for housing in the South-east is £45bn. This is £8bn short of what can be provided from sources such as the Housing Corporation, housing associations, government and PFI.