NPPF changes will result in 1.3 million homes built by the end of the parliament, OBR forecasts

The government’s changes to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) will result in the construction of 1.3 million homes during the course of this parliament, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has said.

In a forecast published today alongside Rachel Reeves’ spring statement, the OBR said last year’s changes to the NPPF alone would add an extra 170,000 homes by 2029, pushing housebuilding to its highest level for 40 years. Completions are forecast to reach 305,000 homes a year by 2029-30.

It said: “This increased housebuilding over the forecast period is driven mainly by requirements for local authorities to release land to meet development needs as well as the strengthened presumption in favour of sustainable development which, if triggered, requires local authorities to release land for further development unless the adverse impacts of doing so significantly outweigh the benefits.”

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It said most of the increase will take place from 2027/28 as it takes time for developers to identify sites, local authorities to bring forward local plans, capacity constraints in the sector to be overcome and additional houses to be built.

Responding to the OBR, the Treasury pointed out new homes delivered under the next Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) and the Planning and Infrastructure Bill are not included in the forecast and ”will all help to reach” its manifesto target of building 1.5m homes by the end of the parliament. 

The NPPF changes announced last year include the return of mandatory local housing targets and a new method to calculate them, along with measures aimed at relasing more green belt land for development. 

Reeves announced today the government will invest a further £13bn in capital infrastructure over the next five years.

This figure includes housing expenditure along with infrastructure and defence. More information about the funding for housing, including the details of the next AHP, are expected to be announced in the spending review in June.