The 36-year-old property developer entered the public eye with an audacious, ultimately unsuccessful, bid to buy Alfred McAlpine earlier this year. The industry, however, seems unsure how seriously to take him.
Not surprisingly, Graeme McCallum, managing director of McAlpine Homes, is dismissive: "I'd be fascinated to know why he thinks he has the experience or knowledge to produce more value than we do out of McAlpine – because there's nothing in his background that suggests he could."
And some City analysts are convinced that Goodall is a puppet of Phillips & Drew – the fund manager that backed the McAlpine bid despite being the target's largest shareholder.
In the end, however, housebuilders may be forced to reckon with Goodall. Although he says he has not spoken to Phillips & Drew since the McAlpine offer, he has secured backing from Royal Bank of Scotland's property finance department to go on another raid. If he buys a housebuilder, the bank will take a minority stake.
Underlying Goodall's ambitions is a general acknowledgement that City investors are pushing for greater consolidation. Cala chairman Geoff Ball thinks they are right to be unhappy with their returns from the housebuilding sector. He says: "The fact that the City has marked the sector down in recent years is probably right. Return on capital has been derisory, rights issues have been squandered, and, as we all know, the City has a long memory."
So, despite Goodall's insistence that any bid will follow a similar pattern to his "friendly" approach to McAlpine, companies are watching their backs. He says he is now looking at five other companies – three public and two private – valued at between £50m and £300m. He favours firms based in the South-east, and, as Goodall has experience of developing Brighton Marina, analysts are speculating that marina specialists Swan Hill and Prowting may be on his list.
Where's he coming from?
Goodall says that when he does buy his own housebuilder, he will take on board many of the lessons he has learned from his friend Tony Pidgley, chief executive of Berkeley Group.
"Berkeley's stance on margins over volumes makes perfect sense," he says. "I see little benefit in chasing volumes. I want to be the most profitable housebuilder in the UK. Someone else can have the volumes; we'll keep the profit."
Pidgley still sees Goodall once or twice a year. "I've known Andrew since he was very young," he says. "He's very determined and I have nothing but praise for him. When he does things, he does things thoroughly. I've no doubt he could buy and run a business. He's a very capable young man."
Goodall plans to split any company he buys into its constituent parts. He did the same thing when he bought Brighton Marina, dividing it up into commercial, residential and housing arms. He would also elect a small team of four or five people to co-ordinate business strategy, and let the existing managers get on with running the company.
Most of the companies he is targeting have a social housing element; these are likely to be sold off, because he believes their lower margins are more akin to contracting. However, he may retain some ownership of the separate parts of the business.
Goodall has deep housebuilding roots. His father Robin worked for Crest Nicholson and then Berkeley during the 1970 and 1980s, and Hertfordshire-born Andrew has worked on building sites from an early age.
He qualified as an accountant with KPMG in 1988. In 1996, after several years refurbishing and redeveloping decrepit buildings on Brighton's seafront, his company, Brunswick Developments, bought the marina from Brent Walker for £9m. Since then, he has turned the former white elephant around, selling land to Barratt and developer Kingspark, and jointly developing a Virgin cinema, a bowling alley and a host of shops.
The view from the Square Mile
Ultimately, Goodall's chances of a successful purchase will depend on a highly geared bid with strong City backing.
Housebuilding has enjoyed something of a re-rating in recent months, helped by upbeat year-end figures and the promise of a low-inflation, low-interest-rate economy.
Nevertheless, there remains only a handful of stock market darlings in the sector: Persimmon, Redrow, Berkeley and Wimpey. And the chairman of one top housebuilder reckons even they are not big enough for the City: "I am confident that Wimpey and Bryant will not be owned by same company in five years' time and that Persimmon and McAlpine will either acquire or be acquired."
Most chief executives agree there is room for greater consolidation. But since the recent Cala buy-out, which escalated from the original bid of 165p a share to 200p, and Prudential's protest over the low cost of the management buy-out at Wainhomes, many bosses are wary of catching merger fever.
Persimmon chief executive John White, speaking before the company's closed period, agrees: "I think there will be a lot more consolidation but some of the prices seem very high to me."
Although Goodall spotted a bargain at McAlpine – most analysts believe his £243m bid undervalued the company, and its shares shot up afterwards – a successful bid could make or break his relatively small firm.
As one analyst says: "Goodall seems to have a lot of bottle – but if he gets it wrong, he'll cock up big time."
