Local election results in full

Across the country households are being deluged with leaflets, telephone calls, and knocks at the door from political canvassers. Nominations have now closed for the 2006 local elections but to the relief of many, elections are not taking place everywhere this May.

All seats in the 32 London boroughs are being decided, and in three London boroughs, Hackney, Lewisham and Newham as well as Watford, elections will also take place for an executive mayor. In the 36 metropolitan boroughs and 82 shire districts a third of the seats are up for election, half the seats in a further six, some seats in 20 unitary councils, and all seats in North Hertfordshire.

At the moment the Conservatives are the largest party in local government controlling 150 councils with 8500 councillors nationwide.

Because of the years in which the seats were last contested, we are not comparing like with like. All seats in London were fought in 2002, during the honeymoon period following the second Blair landslide. Seats in the metropolitan boroughs were last fought in 2004, during the height of controversy regarding Iraq, which made the contest the worst year for Labour between 2001-05. It is possible that Labour could sustain losses in London, while making gains in the metropolitan boroughs.

A referendum on leadership

The 2006 local election was always billed as the first major test of political opinion since the general election. However, much has changed in the last year and the elections are likely to be considered a referendum on the leadership of David Cameron for the Conservatives, Sir Menzies Campbell for the Liberal Democrats and the prime minister.

In London there has been a massive concentration by the parties on the ultra marginal Labour-held boroughs of Bexley, Croydon and Hammersmith & Fulham, where Labour won the most seats in 2002 but in each case polled fewer votes than their Conservative rivals. In Croydon the contest has boiled down to just one ward, marginal Waddon, which has received visits from a host of ministers, including Tony Blair, himself. However the decision by Labour not to nominate candidates in the split Liberal Democrat/Conservative ward of Coulsdon South in Croydon makes the contest far too close to call as the Conservatives are being forced to divert resources into Coulsdon and are having to target an additional ward.

In Birmingham, the People’s Party for Justice in Kashmir Party has disbanded and joined the Liberal Democrats

Labour is also not fielding candidates for a number of seats in Richmond-upon-Thames which now looks certain to be a Liberal Democrat gain.

Hanging on a knife edge

All over the country there are councils to watch, where political control hangs on a knife edge. If only one seat changes hands in each of Coventry, Bassetlaw and Waveney, the Conservatives will gain outright control. The LibDems need a single gain to win Cheltenham, Eastbourne and St Albans, while Labour needs a single gain to take Derby and Saint Helens.

In the country's most marginal parliamentary seat of Crawley, (Labour majority 37), Labour faces the possibility of losing control for the first time in 36 years. A loss of just one seat would leave Labour without a majority while a loss of two seats would produce a Conservative majority. Labour is fighting a high-profile campaign there, which includes fielding former Channel 4 television Big Brother contestant, Eugene, as a celebrity candidate. Whether that is enough to save their majority, we shall see.

On the south coast, the voters of Portsmouth are facing interesting and close-run elections. A controversial Liberal Democrat minority administration is one seat away from an overall majority. Planning is always a complex proposition in Britain's most densely populated city, but when the local MP, Mike Hancock, is the portfolio holder for planning and regeneration, it spices things up even more. In Southampton the parties have almost equal numbers, with a Liberal Democrat executive formed from 17 councillors, with 31 from the other parties.

Slough and Thurrock, both unitary councils unexpectedly lost by Labour in 2004 - Slough to a coalition of non-Labour parties and Thurrock to the Conservatives - will have closely fought elections but no change is expected in either. In Birmingham, run by a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition, the People's Party for Justice in Kashmir Party, which already has two councillors, has disbanded and joined the Liberal Democrats.

Whoever emerges from this contest with political control is likely to be no friend of builders and developers

In Oxford, a minority Labour administration is under attack from the Liberal Democrats, Greens and the Independent Working Class Association (IWCA). Labour is financially handicapped for the election having been sued for libel by the IWCA and forced to pay it £15,000 in compensation. Whoever emerges from this contest with political control is likely to be no friend of builders and developers.

In the North-west, the Liberal Democrats are hoping to run Labour close in Manchester and expect to retain their overwhelming majority on Liverpool City Council. In Bolton, despite holding all three parliamentary seats, Labour could be forced into third place on the council. In former strongholds such as Wigan and Warrington, Labour is threatened by local independent parties which could impact on future planning decisions.

Labour is also facing similar problems in Yorkshire, with Doncaster remaining under no overall control and the possibility of Barnsley falling to no overall control. The Conservative/ Liberal Democrat/Green coalition is likely to retain Leeds, while in Bradford the minority Conservative administration is likely to tip towards a majority. The Liberal Democrats will retain their majority in Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Labour will retain their stranglehold on the other councils in the region.

In terms of seat predictions, the Conservatives will be happy to make more than 200 gains, about 75 of these in London. The Liberal Democrats are hoping to gain about 100 seats and Labour is hoping to keep losses well below 500.

For those interested in the results, prepare for a very late night. Polling has been extended to 10pm and several councils, including most in Yorkshire, as well as Hackney, Newham and Westminster in London, have decided to delay their counts until Friday. A true picture of the new political landscape in local government will take longer than usual to emerge. However, it is clear that by the following Monday morning many developers will have good reason to re-examine their local strategies and consider the best way of overcoming the new political hurdles on the way to planning consent.