George Bush, smokescreens and a return to 1973

Here comes the latest Government fudge: the news that English Partnerships and The Housing Corporation could be merged.

Some Labour party members have been speaking about "reviewing and examining the roles and delivery of the existing bodies", with the question being how best they can work together. I say leave them alone.

It comes as no surprise that the ODPM is pleased to devolve housing and regeneration, because it is a difficult task and to date they have not, in my opinion, made a good fist of it.

However, I cannot see how the tasks involved could be made to work better elsewhere and, frankly, I also cannot foresee the economic drivers to justify such a move.

There are bigger things we ought to be thinking about - the main one being the upwardly spiralling price of oil and its possible impact on worldwide economics and consequently the property industry.

While the main economic indicators of inflation and interest rates are in much better shape than in 1973 and 1979 - crisis years when oil prices spiralled out of control and we plunged into recession - there will still come a point when that most fragile of things, confidence, will turn.

As in the 1970s, this long-anticipated and much discussed change will create a chain reaction which will sweep through the developed economies of the world.

George Bush's smokescreen - the debate over whether Iran should be permitted to develop its own nuclear weapons - only thinly veils the real issue behind the scary headlines. Don't be fooled by George Bush; as far as Iran is concerned it is all to do with the fact that Iran is OPEC's second producer of oil.

So why am I outlining such political and economic theories in this magazine? It's because, in an ever expanding global economy, such concerns will have a direct impact on our industry.

If the developed countries of the world continue to manage things in a selfish way, as they are doing by creating pent-up demand for oil in currently developing nations like India, China and South East Asia, this will in turn damage the economy, and property development, in the UK.

If OPEC does not better manage the expectations of these developing countries, which have a huge demand for oil, the consequence will be a reduction in demand for occupiers and inward investment in the UK. It is no secret that investment in this country is being buoyed by Russia and China, and if investment were turned off the demand for property would reduce. This would obviously have a reverse effect on the property supply chain.

Subsequent increases in inflation and interest rates will then follow. And here we go again - 1973, anyone?