In the midst of the parliamentary chaos over Brexit in the run-up to Christmas, the government quietly made a small but highly symbolic move. As it ramped up preparations for crashing out without a deal – publicising plans to spend £2bn and put troops on reserve – technical documents on the prospect of a no-deal Brexit were subtly edited to remove the word “unlikely”. 

A no-deal Brexit is an outcome, remember, that the Bank of England has warned could wipe 8% off the UK’s GDP this year – a bigger hit than the financial crisis – potentially taking 30% off house prices. Business groups, including the CBI and British Chambers of Commerce, have teamed up to express their horror at the increased risk of a no-deal exit, while ministers have threatened to resign their posts if it’s allowed to happen.

Next week, with the rescheduled vote on prime minister Theresa May’s exit deal, parliament may find a way to walk back from this precipice. Of course, ratifying a withdrawal agreement of any kind will include a transition agreement – meaning the current regulations continue unchanged for at least this year and the next. But while the possibility of a chaotic no-deal remains, UK construction firms are having to make decisions here and now about how to prepare themselves. 

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