Around a month before Russian tanks began to roll across his country’s border, Anatoliy Chegusov was preparing a risk analysis for his clients in the west. The owner and managing director of a glass facades business in Kyiv, Chegusov told his UK customers there were three possible scenarios for the months ahead.

Scenario one was that there would be no war, an outcome which they believed to have a roughly 43% probability. Scenario two – estimated at 45% – described minor acts of Russian aggression, confined to the east of Ukraine. The third scenario, Anatoliy told his clients, was a bloody massacre, culminating in a third world war.

“The first two scenarios were wrong,” Chegusov told Building, speaking over Zoom from an under-siege Kyiv last week. “I really hope the third will also not be correct.”