Event horizon

Looking to the future is risky business. And only a brave few would dare to put a date on their projections. 1984 and 2001 have come and gone but what about 25 years from now? What's in store for the services industry?

Visitors to the M&E Event at Earls Court were given a glimpse into the crystal ball as industry experts put their reputations on the line with some predictions of things to come in a session entitled M&E 2030.

First up was Andrew Eastwell, chief executive of the Building Services Research and Information Association. If a researcher doesn't know what's coming up, who does? "Billions of pounds are being invested in nanotechnology in aerospace, medicine and microelectronics which will have a massive impact on building services as well," said Eastwell. Within 25 years, nanotechnology will transform the lighting sector: expect paints that can light up in response to lv dc. The technology could also see the costs of low emissivity glass tumble, ushering in more efficient buildings.

With carbon nanotubes being ten times the strength of steel and only one-fifth of its weight, we can look forward to large skyscrapers where the weight of the building is irrelevant. However, this means there would be less thermal mass to rely on and a big impact on services solutions. "We will become built environment engineers rather than building services engineers," predicted Eastwell. "New construction materials will require a fully integrated design and the differences between services, structure and architecture will diminish."

Prefab shout

Perhaps surprisingly, Eastwell thought that: "Prefabrication won't develop as fast as some enthusiasts might wish." He called for better business data to support off-site investment, to extend best practice data and an increase in standardisation activity.

The rise and rise of telecomms is hardly a prediction at all but in 20 years' time Eastwell foresees the day when there is inbuilt wireless communications and intelligence in every building services element. A light, pump or fan will know what its performance curve is, how long it has been running, the current being drawn and the operating temperature. "There will be business opportunities for those that take up the systems integrator role," said Eastwell. "Fit and forget will become construct and cherish and a concerted collaborative effort will be needed by the standards-setting bodies to allow cross-platform working."

Like Eastwell, Charles Lever, director of building services at Taylor Woodrow Construction, predicted taller buildings. Unlike Eastwell, he sees a bright future for concrete, steel and glass with new materials some way off. "There will be pressure to build bigger, better, faster and cheaper with the best design solutions," said Lever.

He cited the Taipei 101 Tower in Taiwan as the shape of things to come. At 508 m tall, lifts running at 39 mph and 1 Gigabytes/s fibre optic and satellite internet links, the building relies on advanced engineering to protect against 200 mph winds, volcanic activity and earthquakes - hopefully not required for that spec office development in Slough in 2030.

Lever also predicted the growth of sustainable developments like the recent 100-year life cycle Welsh Assembly building and emphasis on internal ambience. "We will build hospitals that aid convalescence and schools that aid learning," said Lever. He also called for greater collaboration, communication, co-ordination and common sense in a plea for more partnering. Overall, construction has a bright future, said Lever.

Fuel for thought

What really rankles is losing someone to a firm that doesn’t train at all

Paddy Conaghan, a senior partner at building services consultant Hoare Lea looked at how his profession would change by 2030. The biggest driver will be the decline in fossil fuels, where oil supply will be outstripped by the demand in 2010. "$60 a barrel is only the start of the story," said Conaghan. With access to hydrocarbons limited, he predicted birth control incentives to encourage depopulation, with the knock-on effect of fewer buildings to design and build. "Carbon fuel depletion will be more influential than climate change in setting the agenda," said Conaghan.

The remit of the services engineer will evolve so that they become much more involved in architecture and systems engineering. "Often, there will be no architect at all," said Conaghan. "It will be a good time to be an engineer: we have the skillsets needed."

With skills shortages widely reported across all construction sectors, will we have enough tradespeople coming through to do the job? This was addressed in an earlier session entitled The workforce of the future, chaired by HVCA director Robert Higgs. Solutions were sought to the perennial problems of not enough employers taking on apprentices, lack of government funding to train older workers and an increasing reliance on overseas and agency staff.

One employer who is committed to training is Andrew Iveson, md of m&e contractor SIAS Building Services. "If you train people, you engage them and their loyalty to the company is that much higher," he said. "You are less likely to lose well trained people." Unsurprisingly, Keith Marshall, chief executive of SummitSkills was in no doubt of the need to train. "The issue is about skills. Skill levels in the UK don't compare favourably with the competition and employers have to play their part. Training creates commitment and loyalty and is definitely an investment not a cost."

There will always be those firms that don't train and rely on poaching from those that do. "People inevitably move on and that's not a problem if other companies are doing their bit and adding to the training pool," said Iveson. "What really rankles is losing someone to a firm that doesn't train at all."

Strategist or anarchist?

Iveson believes it is part of a firm's corporate responsibility to train and asked: "Are you a long-term strategist or short-term anarchist?" Many in the industry, including Iveson, believe that a compulsory training fund is the answer to that particular problem.

Few would argue that more government funding for adult trainees is vital. Keith Marshall felt that the government pays more attention to its social agenda than it does the skills agenda. "It doesn't want to see 16 year olds drawing benefit so that's where the money goes. Consequently there is a lack of funding for adults."

Nanotubes or not, if we are to have sufficient workers in the future to cope with projects on the scale of the 2012 Olympics and beyond, these topics have to be addressed sharpish, alongside other thorny issues. For example, will the workforce of M&E 2030 have better representation among women and ethnic minorities? Crystal ball anyone?