You only have to look at the latest set of construction tender price forecasts – and the eye-watering increases peaking at 10% for the rest of the year – to see just how vulnerable the sector is to spiralling inflation in the wider economy.

For a time it had seemed construction – and particularly housebuilding – would lead the UK into a period of post-covid recovery, with the government also promising to build, build, build and companies focused on dealing with all the pent‑up demand in the market.

Higher prices were flagged as a potential headache although the focus was on getting teams back and racing to secure workers and supplies in time. But disease was followed by the outbreak of war in Europe and now energy prices and scarcity of supplies have led to run-away inflation, predictions of stagnation and fears of a full-on recession.

Whether or not we tip into technical recession is slightly beside the point; it feels like we are heading for one and so confidence is on the slide. The data gives us little reason to be cheerful. Figures from the Office for National Statistics for April were worse than predicted, showing the economy shrank by 0.3% after contracting by 0.1% in March. It was also the first time all main sectors of the economy had weakened since January 2021. And a shocker came from the OECD when it warned the UK’s predicted zero growth in 2023 will be the worst in the G20, except for sanctions‑crippled Russia.

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