All articles by Brian Green – Page 40
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Is private house building heading for its worst ever recorded downturn?
The latest Government house building figures appear to add weight to growing fears that unless there is a dramatic turnaround in fortunes the number of private homes built this year could fall by a quarter or more.A fall of this scale would beat the 1974 drop of 24% in homes ...
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Will house building lead construction into recession?
Reading the news in the FT that Merrill Lynch's Mark Hake, the longstanding construction industry analyst, has downgraded house builders was not good to hear.But more worrying to the industry as a whole is that he seems to be suggesting industry volumes will drop by a quarter this year. That ...
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Small building firms squeezed as housing work shrinks
Local builders appear to be taking a bashing as a combination of householders with less money in their pockets and a freezing housing market takes its toll.Each quarter their trade body FMB conducts a state of trade survey where it measures (among other things) the balance between those seeing workload ...
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Consensus grows on house price falls
Each week with each piece of data and each new forecast the balance of probability weighs increasingly heavily on the side of house prices falling rather than remaining flat this year.Today we see released the spring Item Club economic outlook for business and the latest Rightmove figures on asking prices ...
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Commercial property demand plummets
The latest RICS survey on commercial property demand makes grim reading.Two figures are particularly worrying for the construction sector. Firstly: The balance of surveyors reporting demand down against those seeing demand rising was 30%, the worst figure for six years. Secondly: The balance between surveyors saying there was more available ...
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Slowing lending points to worsening housing market
There was little joy in today's release of the Council of Mortgage Lenders March figures for lending, as they reinforced data pointing to a weakening housing market.Lending was up 5% on February, but the normal 20% March jump was absent with the figure 17% down on a year ago. Worse ...
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As Poles depart - what then?
At last some good statistical news for the Government – unemployment down – employment up – an increase in the number of vacancies.This boost will be particularly welcomed by both the Chancellor and Prime Minister, as the employment figures are so far proving to be their strongest card in their ...
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Meanwhile... housing market gets gloomier over the pond
If the RICS housing market survey has failed to provide enough gloom, here's the story from across the Atlantic. Foreclosures (repossessions) in March up 57% on the same month a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties.RealtyTrac also suggests that things are so bad that more ...
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Worst housing market figures we've recorded, says RICS
The latest poll of estate agents by the surveyors body RICS produced the gloomiest set of figures on house price falls in the poll's 30 year history.According to the latest monthly RICS housing market survey, the seasonally adjusted figure for the difference between the proportion of agents seeing house price ...
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Base rate cut provides some relief as property-related orders slide
The Bank of England's much expected decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 5% will provide a little short-term relief to worried managements within the construction and property sectors - although there will have been many crossed-fingered directors hoping for a 50 basis point cut.And certainly the contracting fraternity ...
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Will UK construction follow the US into recession?
The latest construction research note from the surveyors' trade body RICS takes an interesting look at the current state of the US and UK construction sectors. The underlying question RICS asks is whether the UK industry will follow the US into a recession.The headline grabbing data from the US are ...
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Halifax house price figures show biggest drop since 1992
As I speculated late last month there was a potentially nasty blow in the pipeline for the sales teams of house builders and at estate agents when the Halifax house price index was published.Well the figures have been published and show a monthly fall of 2.5%, the fastest since September ...
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Buyers and sellers feel construction market shudder
If the RICS construction survey is a good indication of what the future may look like, then the monthly Purchasing Managers Index produced by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) tends to give a fair indication of the mood of the moment.So when the March results released today ...
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There may be trouble ahead
How worried should we be about the the findings by the surveyors body RICS in its latest construction market survey showing that the outlook for the industry is at its worst for a decade?The short answer is seriously concerned. But that is only a partial answer. It certainly does not ...
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A bad time for house prices to go negative
Nationwide released its latest house price figures today showing the a 1.1 per cent rise over the past 12 months. However, it also revised its forecast for 2008 down from no change to an overall fall.This will please neither estate agents nor house builders as they put Easter behind them ...
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Deeper and down for US house prices
As we consider, or for that matter dismiss the possibility of a house price crash in the UK it is perhaps worth taking a look at the shape of things in the US.The most respected figures for house prices come from the S&P/Case Shiller index and this shows prices down ...
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Construction boom forecast to slump
The latest forecast from Hewes & Associates is not one that will fill the faint hearted with comfort as they return to work from their Easter break.Hewes's rather bleak take on the prospects for UK construction suggests that the industry is heading for a fairly prolonged recession taking output in ...
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Government housing strategy holed below the water line
As if Gordon Brown hasn't enough on his plate at the moment, this morning he received a letter from the Home Builders Federation telling him that his housing policy doesn't stack up.The letter sent by HBF Executive Chairman Stewart Baseley warns Mr Brown that he faces stark choices between the ...
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Housing policy facing the crunch
For those not convinced that the credit crunch has spilled over into the “real economy”, a quiet chat with an estate agent or house builder may be worth the effort.The news that two more bidders have joined Barratt in walking away from English Partnerships' flagship carbon challenge project at ...
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Brian Green
As a journalist and commentator, Brian Green has tracked trends in construction, property and housing for more than 20 years. He was the project editor for last year's launch of the Contract Journal Top 100 report and edits Housing Market Intelligence, now regarded as the 'industry bible'. Brian is a ...