All articles by Brian Green – Page 36
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Comment
Fall in construction worse than thought drags economy to a halt
If you take the figures at face value, things have just gotten a lot worse for construction and a recession now seems inevitable and potentially deeper than first thought.According to the newly revised GDP figures for the second quarter of this year UK economic growth has come to a grinding ...
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A tale of two statistics and why accuracy isn't about decimal places
I received an email late last night suggesting that I might like to blog on the sudden pulling of the property transaction figures - that is the recently introduced dataset that measures residential sales over £40,000.I lead a thrill filled life...Anyway the figures have plunged of late and the statisticians ...
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London sellers take the lead in cutting asking prices for homes
The latest Rightmove figures providing information on what sellers are asking for their homes suggest there has been a swift downward turn in the London market, with more than £20,000 cut from average asking prices between July and August.This adds another hint to hints we picked up in the recent ...
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It's time to get to know inflation again
For both consumers and construction firms inflation is becoming a real factor once again and maybe it is time to give much more consideration to how to deal with it.I was brought up with inflation. I recall being told time and again by my parents how few pennies things cost ...
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Are we seeing the bottom of the housing market collapse? Probably not
The broad message coming out of the latest housing market survey from the surveyors' body RICS is that transactions may be stabilising but prices still are falling and have a way to fall yet.The interview with RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn on Radio 4's Today programme suggested that sellers are ...
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Comment
A nasty hole has appeared in the new orders figures
One set of bad orders figures provides no real cause for concern. This data series can bounce around like a drunken kangaroo. It is a feature of the lumpiness of construction projects. But a second consecutive set of duff figures does start to set a few alarm bells ringing.So the ...
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Comment
Probably the worst Halifax house price figures ever - unless you're a homebuyer
So house prices dropped a further 1.7% in July according to Halifax (HBOS). For those concerned about the depth of any correction in the housing market that will be worrying.Added to the other eight monthly falls there have been over the past 12 months that means on the Halifax "smoothed" ...
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Why money matters
I read this Money Week article on how British firms are running out of money and thought it may be of interest in the light of estimates I made on the money owed by and to construction firms.It's a bit on the scary side, but no less interesting for that.
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Comment
Is the sharp drop in the Nationwide house price index good or bad news?
There have always been paradoxes in the housing market. For instance, while people want the price of all other essentials items to fall homeowners want the value of their home - and by implication all homes - to rise, even if it would be to their disadvantage in cash terms ...
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Construction firms owe £30 billion to trade creditors
I am in the midst of putting together data for the Contract Journal Construction Top 100 and there were a couple of figures I thought worth sharing that have come out of some analysis on trade debt and credit.From the number crunching I am doing I have estimated that construction ...
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A 25% jump in house prices - is that scientific or finger licking bad
I can tell you the price of a house in 2020. I'll even let you into the secret of how I do it. What I do is lick my finger and stick it into the wind. Works every time, especially on those with no memory and little understanding, and I ...
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Comment
Official figures show construction output dropping in second quarter
So there it is, construction output slumped sharply in the second quarter of this year, according to the first take by the national statisticians of economic activity.The statisticians put the 0.7% drop in construction activity down to the sharp drop in house building work. The 0.7% drop in construction output ...
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Inflation tsunami flattens construction prospects
I recognise that I have said this time and again and probably will say it a few times more - but don't underplay the impact of rising inflation.I can already hear echoes of overexcited managment consultants suggesting to clients to take note of what is rising in the east and ...
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Keeping it real
I received an interesting email from Ray Crotty of C3 systems some days ago now. It was in essence a challenge to look at the industry over 20 or 30 years and see if "we're seeing anything now that we haven't seen before in terms of economic adjustment at work ...
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Fresh dip in mortgage lending spells deepening gloom for housing market
The latest figures from the British Bankers' Association make seriously grim reading. The seasonally adjusted value of loans approved in June for homes dropped to a third of what it was in the same month a year ago.The figures read: £3,297 million June 2008 against the already pitiful £4,243 million ...
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Plunging house sales create major tax headache for Darling
If I were the Chancellor looking at the latest property transaction figures I wouldn't be worried, I'd be very worried.At 270,000 transactions for residential property in the second quarter, we are looking at a housing market about 38% less active than a year ago, when 432,000 transactions were undertaken in ...
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RICS figures suggest commercial building market is heading for a beating
The release of some pretty nasty survey results on the commercial property market from the surveyors body RICS is far from the sort of fare one would have served up just before heading off on holiday, but there it is. Bleak, with spiky curves heading in just the directions you ...
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Comment
What makes the latest Rightmove figures significant
Let's face it predicting house price movements is like trying to forecast the British weather. You can have a vague clue from the available data, but you are likely to be onto a loser more often than not if you try to pin down how things will turn out in ...
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And now for the good news - Treasury set to widen the goalposts
I am not really sure why I was surprised to hear Nick Robinson on the BBC news last night confirming an FT story due to run today about the Treasury changing the borrowing rule set by Gordon Brown when he was Chancellor.It seemed clear that Government debt was set ...
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Government needs to lay firm foundations for its housing policy
I admit it, my response to Caroline Flint's housing rescue plan Part II, "Facing the housing challenge - Action today, innovation tomorrow", was borne out of frustration.I admit that lapsing into frustration is a huge fault in my character, one that frankly frustrates me.I admit that there are some elements ...