Experts predict sharp drop in growth in 2005 | News

UK economy growth (%)
	2001 actual	2002 actual	2003 actual	2004 estimated	2005 forecast	2006 forecast	2007 forecast
GDP	2.3	1.8	2.3	3.3	3	2.5	2.5
Fixed investment	2.6	2.7	2.2	6	4.5	4	4
Consumer expenditure	3.1	3.2	2.3	3.3	2.3	2	2.3
Household disposable incomes	4.7	1.4	2.2	3.5	2.5	1.8	2
Consumer price index inflation	1.8	1.3	1.4	1.3	2	2	2
Bank base rates June	5.25	4	3.75	4.5	5	5	4.75
Bank base rates December	4	4	3.75	4.75	5	4.75	4.5
Source: Construction Products Association

Housing market forecasts
	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
House price growth, Q4, year on year (% change)	15	15	4	2	2
Gross advances (£bn)	277	293	271	241	235
Net advances (£bn)	101	103	94	85	81
Property transactions (millions)	1.4	1.64	1.23	1.20	1.21
First-time buyers (% of loans)	29	28	31	34	34
Unemployment (000s)	931	848	835	860	860
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders

Construction output
	2004 estimated	2005 forecast	2006 forecast	2007 forecast
Housing
Public (£m)	2,080	2,390	2,630	2,840
% change	27	15	10	8
Private (£m)	10,715	11,360	11,475	11,475
% change	12	6	1	0
Total (£m)	12,795	13,750	14,105	14,315
% change	14.2	7.5	2.6	1.5
Other new work
Public non-housing (£m)	8,625	9,455	9,980	10,345
% change	18.6	9.6	5.5	3.6
Infrastructure (£m)	5,905	5,625	5,735	6,060
% change	–12.3	–4.7	2	5.7
Industrial (£m)	3,310	3,375	3,310	3,310
% change	8	2	–2	0
Commercial (£m)	12,575	12,850	13,220	13,770
% change	4	2.2	2.9	4.2
Total other new work (£m)	30,415	31,305	32,245	33,485
% change	4.3	2.9	3	3.8
Total new work (£m)	43,210	45,055	46,350	47,800
% change	7	4.3	2.9	3.1
Repair, maintenance and improvement
Private housing RM&I	12,385	12,015	12,015	12.375
% change	1	–3	0	3
Public housing RM&I	6,840	7,185	7,400	7,620
% change	8	5	3	3
Public other RM&I	6,575	6,245	6,430	6,625
% change	–5	–5	3	3
Private other RM&I	11,365	10,455	10,665	11,200
% change	–5	–8	2	5
Total RM&I	37,165	35,900	36,510	37,820
% change	–0.8	–3.4	1.7	3.6
Total all work	80,375	80,955	82,860	85,620
Total % change	3.2	0.8	2.4	3.4
Source: Construction Products Association