… from the local elections, by Tom Curtin and Will Scawn of Green Issues Communications

1 The results

Buffeted by allegations of sleaze and incompetence, Labour had braced itself for a poor electoral result and its fears were largely confirmed as it lost 18 councils.

The Conservatives had a good night, especially in London, while the Liberal Democrats were disappointed at not having tapped into wider support (see table below).

A Sky News projection suggested the Conservatives would have a 10-seat majority in the House of Commons if the local election figures were repeated in a general election. However, it should be noted that Labour obtained the same share of the vote (26%) at the last local elections in 2004 and went on to win the 2005 general election comfortably.

2 Developer concerns

Where power has changed hands, this will have a clear effect on councils' approach to planning and development. This will be particularly evident in the outer London boroughs that turned Conservative. Tory leader David Cameron will have work to do to convince supporters of the benefits of taking a more enlightened approach to building. We can expect the tussle between the mayor of London and the boroughs to intensify.

3 The Cameron effect

David Cameron's supporters will point to the party achieving a 40% share of the vote (up 2%) as a very strong result. The successes in outer London - most notably in Ealing, where it won 20 seats to take control - are proof of the success of Cameron's leadership.

Of concern, though, will be the party's failure to make headway in Northern urban centres, such as Manchester. Addressing this is likely to be a focus in the coming months and years.

4 The Liberal Democrats

Despite gaining a handful of new councillors, the Liberal Democrats are likely to be disappointed by the result. However, their surprise win in Richmond upon Thames, where they regained control of the borough they lost in 2002, will be heartening.

5 Other parties

The BNP had a clearly successful election. It won 11 seats in Barking and Dagenham (out of 13); and added new councillors in Stoke, Epping Forest and Sandwell. The Green party will also be delighted with its gains, indicating that perhaps not everyone was convinced by Cameron's "vote blue, go green" slogan. George Galloway's Respect party won 11 seats in Tower Hamlets.

Related files/tables